Brian Burley · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Burley is the Republican challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Burley at 4.7¢ against Garcia's 97.9¢, up 1.1¢ since August 3. Garcia leads 11.3 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Burley · Republican contract

4.7¢

▲ 1.1¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Brian Burley by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 6.5¢ · low 3.5¢Oct 12

Brian BurleyRepublican

4.7¢

Robert GarciaDemocratic · incumbent

97.9¢

1,044 traded · 794 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Burley v Garcia

Metric by metric

Burley

Garcia

4.7¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

97.9¢

$231.4K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$2.62M

$5.5K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$1.38M

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2023

The 2026 race

California 42nd District

Prior result

D+36.3

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Robert Garcia.

Fundraising

11.3 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.