Ben Ambrose · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Ambrose is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Ambrose at 2.6¢ against Moolenaar's 99.1¢, up 0.4¢ since August 3. Moolenaar leads 19.4 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Ambrose · Democratic contract

2.6¢

▲ 0.4¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Ben Ambrose by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 5.9¢ · low 2.2¢Oct 12

Ben AmbroseDemocratic

2.6¢

John R. MoolenaarRepublican · incumbent

99.1¢

9,676 traded · 4,444 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Ambrose v Moolenaar

Metric by metric

Ambrose

Moolenaar

2.6¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

99.1¢

$85.1K

RaisedFEC, through July 15

$1.65M

$21.9K

Cash on handFEC, through July 15

$1.91M

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2015

The 2026 race

Michigan 2nd District

Prior result

R+30.1

2024 general election, won by John R. Moolenaar.

Fundraising

19.4 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 15.