Elections Intelligence

Aurora Stuski

PA-4U.S. House H architectural icon
CHALLENGER Safe D Long shot
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Stuski is the Republican challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Stuski at 4.4¢ against Dean's 97.9¢, down 1.6¢ since August 3.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Stuski · Republican contract
4.4¢
▼ 1.6¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Aurora Stuski by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 10¢ · low 3.9¢Oct 12
Aurora StuskiRepublican
4.4¢
Madeleine DeanDemocratic · incumbent
97.9¢

3,464 traded · 1,938 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Stuski v Dean

Metric by metric
Stuski
Dean
4.4¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
97.9¢
No total for Aurora Stuski: no report covering this period is on file with the Federal Election Commission.
RaisedFEC, through June 30
$1.37M
—
Cash on handFEC, through June 30
$1.18M
No office on file
Holds now
U.S. Representativesince 2019

The 2026 race

Pennsylvania 4th District
Prior result
D+18.2

2024 general election, won by Madeleine Dean.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.